Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 139,192
2 Rhode Island 137,212
3 South Dakota 137,182
4 Utah 122,689
5 Tennessee 120,410
6 Arizona 117,487
7 Iowa 114,349
8 Oklahoma 112,642
9 Nebraska 112,234
10 Wisconsin 112,168
11 South Carolina 110,824
12 New Jersey 110,769
13 Arkansas 110,580
14 Alabama 106,860
15 Kansas 105,889
16 Indiana 105,872
17 Delaware 104,447
18 Mississippi 104,022
19 Idaho 103,842
20 Illinois 103,408
21 New York 103,153
22 Florida 101,443
23 Nevada 101,070
24 Montana 100,575
25 Georgia 100,061
26 Wyoming 99,274
27 Minnesota 99,107
28 Kentucky 98,838
29 Texas 98,578
30 Massachusetts 97,955
31 Louisiana 97,597
32 Missouri 96,096
33 California 94,230
34 New Mexico 93,290
35 Connecticut 93,159
36 North Carolina 91,242
37 Ohio 90,392
38 Alaska 90,143
39 Michigan 89,008
40 Pennsylvania 87,450
41 Colorado 86,097
42 West Virginia 83,398
43 Virginia 75,958
44 Maryland 72,410
45 New Hampshire 67,700
46 District of Columbia 66,410
47 Washington 51,269
48 Puerto Rico 49,395
49 Maine 43,121
50 Oregon 41,767
51 Vermont 35,436
52 Hawaii 22,471

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 530
2 Rhode Island 380
3 Puerto Rico 372
4 Delaware 318
5 New Jersey 306
6 Tennessee 296
7 Connecticut 287
8 Pennsylvania 286
9 Colorado 271
10 New York 264
11 Florida 259
12 Maine 254
13 Minnesota 254
14 Alaska 252
15 North Carolina 218
16 Illinois 193
17 Massachusetts 189
18 New Hampshire 189
19 West Virginia 175
20 South Carolina 152
21 North Dakota 151
22 Maryland 150
23 Nebraska 139
24 Virginia 137
25 District of Columbia 136
26 Washington 135
27 Oregon 131
28 Vermont 129
29 Ohio 128
30 Idaho 127
31 Louisiana 125
32 Alabama 124
33 New Mexico 118
34 Indiana 116
35 Nevada 116
36 South Dakota 114
37 Wisconsin 111
38 Montana 109
39 Wyoming 108
40 Iowa 107
41 Texas 103
42 Georgia 99
43 Arizona 96
44 Kentucky 86
45 Utah 79
46 Missouri 76
47 Oklahoma 72
48 Mississippi 62
49 California 56
50 Hawaii 49
51 Kansas 42
52 Arkansas 33

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,837
2 New York 2,631
3 Massachusetts 2,536
4 Rhode Island 2,505
5 Mississippi 2,406
6 Arizona 2,362
7 Connecticut 2,249
8 Louisiana 2,216
9 South Dakota 2,207
10 Alabama 2,202
11 Pennsylvania 2,016
12 North Dakota 1,985
13 Indiana 1,965
14 New Mexico 1,913
15 Illinois 1,893
16 Arkansas 1,890
17 Iowa 1,868
18 South Carolina 1,816
19 Michigan 1,809
20 Georgia 1,806
21 Tennessee 1,757
22 Nevada 1,745
23 Texas 1,717
24 Kansas 1,715
25 Oklahoma 1,692
26 Delaware 1,646
27 Ohio 1,628
28 Florida 1,607
29 West Virginia 1,556
30 District of Columbia 1,554
31 California 1,545
32 Missouri 1,491
33 Montana 1,452
34 Kentucky 1,444
35 Maryland 1,421
36 Wisconsin 1,275
37 Minnesota 1,260
38 Virginia 1,244
39 Wyoming 1,218
40 Nebraska 1,214
41 North Carolina 1,188
42 Idaho 1,132
43 Colorado 1,101
44 New Hampshire 934
45 Washington 715
46 Puerto Rico 692
47 Utah 678
48 Oregon 586
49 Maine 570
50 Alaska 434
51 Vermont 387
52 Hawaii 332

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Kansas 5
2 Michigan 5
3 Connecticut 2
4 Florida 2
5 Kentucky 2
6 Maryland 2
7 Missouri 2
8 Nebraska 2
9 New Jersey 2
10 New York 2
11 Pennsylvania 2
12 Rhode Island 2
13 South Carolina 2
14 Tennessee 2
15 Virginia 2
16 Arizona 1
17 Arkansas 1
18 California 1
19 Colorado 1
20 Georgia 1
21 Illinois 1
22 Iowa 1
23 Louisiana 1
24 Massachusetts 1
25 Minnesota 1
26 Montana 1
27 Nevada 1
28 New Hampshire 1
29 New Mexico 1
30 North Carolina 1
31 North Dakota 1
32 Ohio 1
33 Puerto Rico 1
34 Utah 1
35 Washington 1
36 West Virginia 1
37 Wyoming 1
38 Alabama 0
39 Alaska 0
40 Delaware 0
41 District of Columbia 0
42 Hawaii 0
43 Idaho 0
44 Indiana 0
45 Maine 0
46 Mississippi 0
47 Oklahoma 0
48 Oregon 0
49 South Dakota 0
50 Texas 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wisconsin 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 355,882 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 349,592 2 99
Bent Colorado 266,631 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 245,757 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 245,547 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 140,142 187 94
Richland South Carolina 109,005 1003 68
York South Carolina 106,517 1105 64
Orange California 84,761 2120 32
Pierce Washington 51,502 2892 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,035 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 4 99
Hancock Georgia 7,686 5 99
Orange California 1,543 1821 42
Davidson Tennessee 1,331 2074 33
York South Carolina 1,317 2093 33
Richland South Carolina 1,294 2119 32
Pierce Washington 701 2745 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons